Updated Trinity Study for 2021 – More Withdrawal Rates!

Mr. The Poor Swiss | Updated: | Financial Independence
Updated Trinity Study for 2021 - More Withdrawal Rates!

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Would you like to know precisely which withdrawal rate is safe and will sustain your lifestyle for a very long time? You will find the answer in this article with updated results from the Trinity Study!

I have recently talked in detail about The Trinity Study. This study researched different withdrawal rates for retirement. Although the original research was not about early retirement, it is referred to a lot in the Financial Independence and Retire Early (FIRE) movement!

However, for me, there are two caveats with the original study. First, they are only covering the period until 1995. And then, they are not covering more than thirty years of retirement. Thirty years is not enough for some people wanting to retire early.

Therefore, I decided to reproduce all the results of the original study. I used much more recent data from 1871 to 2020. I have also considered periods as long as 50 years. It means many more withdrawal simulations than the original study.

In this article, you will find how I did it and all the results I have gathered from this data!

The Trinity Study

I have already talked at great length about the Trinity Study. It is an excellent research paper done by three professors from Trinity University.

Their research paper’s goal was to see which withdrawal rates people should use to sustain a particular lifestyle for up to 30 years. It is important to note that the original research was not about early retirement but official retirement.

They tested the success rates of withdrawal rates from 3% to 12%. Also, they tested portfolio with between 0% and 100% stocks, by jumps of 25%.

The authors also took inflation into account in the results. Indeed, it is interesting to compare the results with and without inflation. Finally, they also provided the terminal values of the portfolio.

If you want more information, I wrote a detailed article about the Trinity Study.

The 4% Rule (of Thumb)

The Trinity Study is the source of the 4% Rule. This rule states that if you only withdraw 4% of your initial portfolio every year, you will be able to sustain your lifestyle for a very long period. And your withdrawal is adjusted for inflation every year.

Some people believe that the original study shows that this will sustain forever. But this is not what the original research was about. They only tested simulations for up to 30 years.

It is better to call it The 4% Rule of Thumb. Because if you plan to retire very early, you will probably need a lower withdrawal rate. Moreover, your withdrawal rate will depend on your portfolio and your asset allocation to stocks and bonds.

Why did I do it again?

If the study is great, why did I want to redo it? I have several reasons for that.

First, I wanted to see how this was working with recent stock market returns. The original study was only covering years up to 1995. I wanted to have more recent data. I wanted to make sure that the results were holding with more recent stock market behavior. So this simulation will cover returns until the end of 2020!

Secondly, the original study was only covering up to thirty years of retirement. I wanted to be sure that the portfolio can sustain withdrawals for much more extended periods. For people retiring early, I think that 50 years is not unreasonable.

Finally, I have to admit that I like to write code. So it was cool to write code related to this blog. Overall, it was a lot of fun preparing the data for this article. And being a big geek, now I can run many simulations with the data I want.

Ultimately, I want to extend the Trinity Study for the European markets. It will be challenging to obtain the data. But I will try to find it for as many years as possible.

My simulation

My simulation is using monthly withdrawals. I think most people in retirement will withdraw money monthly. It is also possible to withdraw money at the end of the year instead. But I believe that it is not common.

I have calculated all the returns monthly. Doing that makes the results much more accurate than doing it yearly. And the monthly withdrawal is updated with inflation every month as well. Every possible starting month in the available data is tested.

For this simulation, I have not done any rebalancing. For more information, I have compared different rebalancing methodologies for retirement.

Withdrawals are based on the current allocation. For instance, if your base allocation to stocks is 60%, but your current allocation is 80%, 80% of the withdrawal will be taken from stocks. I may use different withdrawal techniques in the future.

Based on this simulation, I will collect the same results as the original study: success rates without inflation, success rates with inflation, and terminal values.

Success Rates

I am going to start the simulation with the entire data from 1871 to 2020.

In this simulation, success is when your portfolio does not run out of money before the end of the simulation. For instance, if we simulate for 20 years and end up with one dollar after 20 years, it is a success. If the portfolio runs out of money before that (could be in the first year or the nineteenth year), this is a failure.

So, the success rate is the percentage of the months that end up with success. Obviously, the higher the success rate, the better the results are.

Let’s see what success rates we have when we ignore inflation. Let’s start directly with 20 years since I do not think anybody will care about a ten-year-long simulation. I will begin at a 3% withdrawal rate and go up to 12%, increasing by 1% at a time.

Updated Trinity Results - 20 years - 1871 - 2020 - No Inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 20 years – 1871 – 2020 – No Inflation

We can see what we already expect:

  • Increasing the withdrawal rate decreases the chances of success
  • Any withdrawal rate higher than 8% does not make any sense in the long-term, even without inflation.
  • A small allocation of bonds can help with lower withdrawal rates
  • Generally, a 100% stocks portfolio will perform better than the other portfolios.

Let’s see what happens when we push the simulation to 30 years.

Updated Trinity Results - 30 years - 1871 - 2020 - No inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 30 years – 1871 – 2020 – No inflation

We can see that increasing the number of years decrease the likelihood of success. It is logical since you are more likely to run out of money.

With 30 years of retirement without inflation, a 6% withdrawal rate with a significant allocation to stocks still makes a lot of sense!

Taking Inflation into Account

But, let’s get serious. It is much better to take inflation into account in our simulation! Let’s see again with 20 years to compare the results:

Updated Trinity Results - 20 years - 1871 - 2020 - U.S. Inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 20 years – 1871 – 2020 – U.S. Inflation

As we can see, inflation makes a major hit to our chances of success! Before inflation, an 8% withdrawal rate made some sense. Now 6% is the limit. And even 6% has a barely over 75% chance of success!

Let’s see what happens with 30 years.

Updated Trinity Results - 30 years - 1871 - 2020 - U.S. Inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 30 years – 1871 – 2020 – U.S. Inflation

We can now see that anything higher than a 6% withdrawal rate is hazardous, with a less than 75% chance to succeed even with 100% stocks.

More withdrawal rates

Since we see that reasonable withdrawal rates are in the range of 3% to 6%, let’s try more withdrawal rates. I have simulated increments of 0.1% of withdrawal rates.

Updated Trinity Results - 30 years - 1871 - 2020 - Inflation - More Rates
Updated Trinity Results – 30 years – 1871 – 2020 – Inflation – More Rates

With a large allocation to stocks, withdrawal rates between 3% and 4% are very safe. Some people would even dare using withdrawal rates of about 4.5%. But even a portfolio with 100% stocks has only an 85% chance of success after 30 years with 4.5%.

Longer simulation time

One of the caveats of the original study is that they stopped at 30 years. Let’s run the same simulation again but with 40 years this time.

Updated Trinity Results - 40 years - 1871 - 2020 - Inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 40 years – 1871 – 2020 – Inflation

After 40 years, we are starting to see lower success rates, even for the 4% withdrawal rate used by most people. Unless you have 100% of stocks, your success rate will be less than 90%.

Let’s see what happens with more than 50 years.

Updated Trinity Results - 50 years - 1871 - 2020 - Inflation
Updated Trinity Results – 50 years – 1871 – 2020 – Inflation

As expected, we see lower success rates. But it is still not bad at all with reasonable withdrawal rates. A 100% allocation to stocks and a 3.5% withdrawal rate still have more than a 98% success rate.

It shows that the study’s original conclusion can still hold for a much more extended period than 30 years. It is excellent news!

Terminal Values

Another interesting thing from the study was that they also compared the terminal values of the different withdrawal rates and portfolios.

So let’s see what would be the terminal values of a 1000$ portfolio after 30 years. I did the simulation for a portfolio of 100% Stocks. For the sake of display, I have reduced the number of withdrawal rates.

Terminal Value of a 1000$ portfolio - 30 Years - 1871 - 2020
Terminal Value of a 1000$ portfolio – 30 Years – 1871 – 2020

I did not show the minimum values. Indeed, they are always zero. If the chance of failure is greater than zero, the minimum value will zero.

However, the average and median values are quite remarkable. We are going to focus on the median since it is generally more representative than the average.

For a withdrawal rate of 3.5%, which is my current target, the median terminal value after 30 years is about 6700 dollars! Not only did your portfolio sustain your lifestyle, but it also increased six-fold! Let me repeat this. After 30 years of doing nothing but withdrawing money, you have six times more money than when you started!

The maximum values do not mean a lot. But it is crazy to see that after 30 years, you could have about 30 times more money than when you started! And this is with a 3.5% withdrawal rate!

Let’s see what happens when we extend to 40 years.

Terminal Value of a 1000$ portfolio - 40 Years - 1871 - 2020
Terminal Value of a 1000$ portfolio – 40 Years – 1871 – 2020

We can see that the results are comparable. However, all the values are significantly higher. The numbers are all about twice higher. During the ten additional years, on average, your retirement money will double. So, even though you are not contributing any more money and living from it, your portfolio will double in 10 years. How cool does that sound?

The success rate is not everything

There is something important with these measurements: the success rate does not tell the entire story. For instance, for you, which of these two scenarios is better:

  1. 98% to last 50 years, but a chance of running out after 10 years
  2. 96% to last 50 years, but a chance of running out after 48 years

For me, the second scenario is definitely better. You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years. But if it fails after 48 years, you have many years to make some adaptations.

So, another quite important metric is the worst duration of a scenario. This means after how many months can you see the first failure can happen.

For reference, here are the success rates of each portfolio for 50 years and different withdrawal rates:

Success Rate for a simulation of 50 years - 1871 - 2020
Success Rate for a simulation of 50 years – 1871 – 2020

And now, here are the worst durations for each of these portfolios:

Worst Duration for a simulation of 50 years - 1871 - 2020
Worst Duration for a simulation of 50 years – 1871 – 2020

If we only look at the first graph, the conclusion is that having a higher allocation to stocks is always better. But if we look at the second graph, 100% stocks is actually the worst one!

So what does this mean: you need a balance in your portfolio. Bonds will greatly reduce the chances of your portfolio going to zero too early on. This does not mean that you should optimize for the highest worst duration either. Because if your highest duration is 40 years, but you have only a 50% chance of reaching 50 years, this is gambling, not planning.

So balance is important. While stocks will increase your success, stocks are more subject to sequences of return risks.

How did I do it?

You can find my code and my data on Github. Everything is available to share as much as possible!

I wrote the entire program in C++. I used this programming language is because it is my favorite! And it is blazing fast! I have not especially optimized my code, and it takes less than a second to generate thousands of simulations.

If you are not a coder, I also have an online FIRE calculator that can do most of the calculations presented here.

My U.S. data s based on the data made available by Big ERN in its Safe Withdrawal Rate series. It is a good dataset that has been tested several times already. Big ERN made all this available for free. I am very thankful for his work! I have completed its data with the missing years using the same methodology.

If you want to use the graphs present in this article, I would ask that you cite this article as the source of the image!

Conclusions

With all these results, we can have several important conclusions.

First of all, the paper’s original conclusions still hold even with much more data taken into account. And it still stands accurate up to 2020! It is great since it shows that the 4% rule of thumb still works!

If you increase the simulation time to more than 30 years, a 4% withdrawal rate is no longer safe. With 50 years of retirement, you have a 90% chance of success with a 4% withdrawal rate at most. A withdrawal rate of around 3.5% would be safer for most people.

If you want real chances of success, you will need more than 50% of your portfolio allocated to stocks. The stocks are what allow us to fight inflation and cover the withdrawal rate year after year.

If you choose a reasonable withdrawal rate, you are very likely to end up with much more money than when you started! For instance, a 3.5% withdrawal rate over 30 years with 100% stocks would leave you about six times more money than when you started!

For information about the original study, read my detailed article about the Trinity Study.

If you want to start investing to become Financially Independent, you will be interested in my guide on how to get started in the stock market.

Future of the series

It was fascinating to reproduce these results. And it was very insightful as well. I have learned many things from the results. It is great to see the confirmation that the original conclusions hold for more than 50 years.

And it also shows that my current withdrawal rate (3.5%) is a safe bet. I may switch to 3.75%, in the future. I will have to run more simulations.

Talking of simulations, I have run a few more simulations with the same idea:

  1. Trinity Study Results with Swiss Stocks
  2. Withdrawal rates and low-yield bonds
  3. When should you rebalance your portfolio?
  4. Does the Trinity Study work in recent years?

Since I plan to make a few more articles like these ones with more simulation, I would like to get your point of view on this article! Please let me know what you think in the comments below! What should I improve?.

What do you think of these results? Would you like me to run more simulations like this? Do you have ideas on what kind of simulations I should run next?

Mr. The Poor Swiss is the author behind thepoorswiss.com. In 2017, he realized that he was falling into the trap of lifestyle inflation. He decided to cut on his expenses and increase his income. This blog is relating his story and findings. In 2019, he is saving more than 50% of his income. He made it a goal to reach Financial Independence. You can send Mr. The Poor Swiss a message here.

110 thoughts on “Updated Trinity Study for 2021 – More Withdrawal Rates!”

  1. Hi!

    Fantastic work. And I am always happy when something someone likes a lot doing also creates value for others. This is definitely the case for me, and I believe you enjoy it too, so it’s a success story :)

    Now I do have a question. Let’s forget for a moment about inflation. In this case, if you have a constant withdrawal, and the value of the portfolio is (let’s say in average) increasing, the withdrawals are, in fact, increasing in absolute value as well. To maintain a way of life without considering inflation, this means that you are actually withdrawing every month a bit more than what you actually need. In other words, you would start with x% withdrawal, but as the portfolio value increases with time, your x% should decrease to account for the fact that in absolute value, you still need the same number (again, not considering inflation).
    Am I wrong here? (I may very well be; many of these things are new to me). Is this what you did the calculations?

    Thanks!!!

    1. Hi Nicolas,

      Thanks for your kind words :)

      Actually, it’s not correct. The withdrawals are based on the initial. portfolio, not on the current portfolio. If the portfolio increases or decreases, your withdrawal does not change. In fact, if you ignore inflation, the withdrawals will never change. The withdrawal rate is applied to the initial value, not the current one.
      Since the withdrawals are based on the initial value, the effective withdrawal rate (this one is applied on the current value) will go down as your net worth increases (or go up if your net worth decreases).

      Does that make sense?

  2. Hi Swiss,
    Thank you for this post, I’ve referenced it many times as I think it brings up an interesting point on worst duration vs success rate that I had not considered before reading this.
    I would be very interested to see a post where you take a closer look at more portfolio increments between 60-100% stocks (say 61,62,63,64 etc) on a 50 year timeline. Trying to find the maximum withdrawal rate that sustains a 600 month worst duration would help find the “best” long term allocation?
    Would like to know your thoughts on this as well.
    Thanks,
    Aspiring Early Retiree

    1. Hi crow,

      Thanks, I am glad you like it :)

      To be honest, I don’t think it would do much a difference. Generally speaking, higher stocks give you better success rate but higher bonds better worst duration. Have an “optimal” 93/7 (entire guess) would probably not change much compared to either 90/10 or 100/0.

      If you want, you can play aroud with the calculator to see :)

  3. Thank you for this article! It’s extremely helpful, especially extending the horizon past 30 years!

    According to the book Quit Like a Millionaire, “ In those rare 5 percent of cases where portfolios fail, they fail because of the first five years.” I would be very interested to see a model withdrawing 3% for the first 5 years, then increasing to 4% (of the initial portfolio amount).

    Thanks!

    1. Hi Lauren,

      Thanks :)

      It’s correct that the first years are very important because if a bear market hits during the first few years of your retirement, this is what is going to hit you hard.
      I have never tried using a reduced withdrawal rate in the first N years. It would help for sure, but I don’t know how much. I will try to think about that.

      Another thing you could do is delay your withdrawal with a cash buffer. But this will take more time to accumulate.

  4. Hey Mr. The Poor Swiss. Interesting as always! Question – I am Swiss and have my brokerage account here, where I invest on ETFs and stocks. I plan to retire abroad. As a Swiss national, I imagine I can keep that brokerage account open, right? Switzerland might not be the best option though, as dividends pay a really high tax, and also my destination country will want me to pay tax on capital gains. Otherwise any recommendation on a tax efficient country where to open a brokerage account even if I am not living there (if at all legally possible)?

    Thanks!
    Poorer Swiss

    1. Hi,

      If you retire abroad, you should be able to keep your account, but it depends on the broker. Some Swiss brokers will not allow you to keep the account if you leave Switzerland. Many of them require that you are a resident. So, you should make sure you are using a broker that is good for multiple countries.
      I have no idea bout the tax system of other countries :) The Swiss tax system is complicated enough for me and I don’t plan to leave Switzerland, so I am not researching any other country.

    1. Hi,

      Thanks, that’s an interesting article, although a bit light.
      Keep in mind that they are doing forecasting for the next 10 year. In my case, I am only using historical data, not any forecast. So since their forecast is much more negative than historically, the results will be less optimistic as well.

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