Compute the success of various withdrawal rates with different portfolios.

## How does this work?

The FIRE calculator is calculating the success rate of a withdrawal rate for a given situation. The calculator will try a retirement simulation starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end year. Here is what happens during the simulation:

- You start with a certain amount of money
- Your portfolio value is adapted based on the returns each month
- Money is withdrawn each month from your portfolio
- The withdrawal is based on the withdrawal rate and the initial portfolio.
- Your withdrawal is adjusted for inflation every month

For instance, if you simulate between 1950 and 2000 with 20 years of retirement, the calculator will try to a retirement simulation starting from every month between 1950 and 1980.

## How to increase my retirement chances?

There are several ways you can **increase your chance of success in retirement**.

First, you can choose a better portfolio for your case. Ideally, you want a large allocation to stocks if your risk tolerance permits it. This will allow your portfolio to grow more. Then, you want broad index funds with very low fees.

Another way is to choose a better withdrawal rate. Simply said, a lower withdrawal rate will increase your chances of success. This means lower returns will not hurt your portfolio too much.

## Using this FIRE calculator

First, choose how much money you have in your portfolio (the initial value). And, choose the period you want to consider for simulation by choosing the start and end year.

Then, choose how many years you want to simulate retirement. And choose how much of your initial portfolio you want to withdraw each year (your withdrawal rate).

Finally, choose your investment portfolio. Once you are done, click Simulate. After a short moment, the result should be presented to you.

Great stuff!

Thanks :)

great stuff man! One suggestion: make inflation selectable and display the inflation adjusted results.

Hi Rob,

All the results are already inflation-adjusted.

Do you mean I should allow people to disable inflation? I do not think this is really good since this would definitely show bad results. Don’t you think?

Apparently, if I retire for 60 years starting with 1.2m, I will end up with 219m!

Hi PMM,

Wow, that seems really high! What withdrawal rate did you take? I guess 100% stocks.

And did you take the average or the median? The average is very skewed towards high numbers in this demo. The median is a much better value.

But that’s quite funny results :)

Thanks for sharing :)

Can I pay you and have the Fire calculator imbedded on my website? Ray, CFP, USA

Hi Ray,

I do not have the resources to host it for many people. But the source code is available online if you want: https://github.com/thepoorswiss/swr-calculator

Thanks for stopping by!

Is this with an S&P 500 index etf? Also, is this with or without dividends reinvested?

Hi Mike,

Yes, the stocks are using the S&P 500 index with dividends reinvested and counted in the returns.

I should make this more clear on the page.

Thanks for stopping by!